The strange, sudden, uncontested end of serious republicanism in Australia

This photo explains much, but not all of what has happened. Let me explain.

The Cambridge family signs off after the most extensive royal tour of Australia and New Zealand in decades.

I am instinctively cautious about declaring the debate over, because I have scar tissue.  I have been a foot soldier in this battle - the constitutional, national identity "culture wars" here in Australia - for over twenty years. I remember how hard it was for our side in the mid to late 1990s. Although we had John Howard on our side, it often seemed like nobody else of any significance in public life seemed prepared to stick their head above the trenches and argue the case for constitutional monarchy.  Our side was all hinterland, but our opponents had all the razzle dazzle of the stars and the spotlight.

When it came to the referendum, we won, of course - but at the time it didn't feel final.  Republican politicians said everything would change after Howard left the prime ministership. Prince Charles' unpopularity would accelerate republican sentiment.  Young people weren't into the royals - their default setting as "Keating's children" was to shrug their shoulders and hop on board with republican modernity. It was all just a matter of time.

Time indeed - look at what it has done to the republican debate in Australia.

When the Cambridges arrived in Australia, the seismic plates of community sentiment shifted, dramatically. It was the release of an opinion poll by Nielsen, one of the nation's top pollsters (although not Newspoll, the gold standard for politicos), showing that for the first time in decades, a majority of Australians were opposed to some kind of in-principle, non-specific republic. That was dynamite for the republican debate, but the devil for the republicans was really in the detail.  Look at the graphic when you read the link, and you'll see what I mean.

The subset of 18-24 year olds polled by Nielsen showed that 60% of millenials were opposed to a republic.  Sixty percent.  Just roll that around for a bit, and let it sink in. Sixty percent of millenials supporting the monarchy in Australia!  This poll showed that it was the youngest that were the age group most opposed to a republic.  The subset was small, and the polling was done by landline, but Nielsen will have allowed for that in its weighting.  It is a serious pollster. It gets it right.

So four decades after Britain joined the EEC, almost four decades after Labor hero Gough Whitlam was dismissed from the prime ministership by the Governor-General, and two decades after another Labor hero, Paul Keating told the Queen at Balmoral that Australia would become a republic, the youngest Australian voters were now its most emphatic monarchists. I would never have dared dream of such a day during the referendum campaign of 1999.

Incredibly overnight, the narrative became one of "young monarchists". Young people organised by the Monarchist League and Australians for Constitutional Monarchy (presumably media trained judging by most of their performances) were rolled out on commercial television and rolling news channels to argue the case. The idea that people in their twenties would stand for hours in crowds to wave flags and sing God Save the Queen didn't seem so odd anymore.  There was empirical evidence to support it as a plausible view in the community. (Photo to the right is from the Australian Monarchist League's Facebook page.)

Suddenly, the middle ground of the debate shifted.  Twenty years, if you wanted "a bob each way", you would support a republic, but defend the existing Australian flag.  Now, the moderate compromise position suddenly looked like being a monarchist, but not endorsing the return of knighthoods. Even then, republicans struggled to get half the country to oppose titles - and that 50% includes John Howard.  (Other polls showed opposition to be measurably lower.) The other half either liked the return of the accolade, or didn't care.  Moreover that poll took place before the tour, not during or after it. I'd guess the support has arisen, like for the monarchy itself.

So with that, the flawless tour by the Cambridges across much of Australia looked natural and normal. Australia had been hanging out for Kate for years, and it finally got the hit it craved.  When the two sides crossed swords one last time as the Duke, Duchess and baby Prince left, the republicans put up their formal leader to offer comment. David Morris, the ARM national director, was a talented advocate for Australia overseas during his diplomatic career over some years and a successful Labor political adviser.  But the contrast with Chris Whittaker of the Australian Monarchist League couldn't have been more stark.  This quote is where I will conclude because it says it all. Australian monarchist sentiment, previously the preserve of the pre-boomer Tory, fading though steadfast, is now youthful, organised and clever:

“I wasn’t alive in 1983, but when Prince Charles and Princess Diana came out they created connection with people and likewise now ... Kate and Will are reaching out to Australians and creating lasting bonds,’’ he said.

“There’s zero chance of Australia becoming a republic any time in the future.’’

(Source: news.com.au)